Cam's been better than his stats

Panthers QB thriving without using crutches most teams use for rookies

Image: TanierGetty Images

Cam Newton is having a stellar rookie season, but Mike Tanier breaks down just how effective he's been.

ANALYSIS

updated 8:55 p.m. ET Oct. 4, 2011

Mike Tanier

Cam Newton camdemonium has quieted ? for the time being.

The excitement of his back-to-back 400-yard games to open the season gave way to the reality that the Panthers lost both games. When the Panthers did win, they beat the woebegone Jaguars in monsoon conditions, and Newton?s statistics ? 18-of-34, 158 yards, one passing touchdown, 27 rushing yards ? were as soggy as the Charlotte mud that day. Newton threw for 374 more yards and ran for a pair of touchdowns against the Bears on Sunday, but the buzz has faded. It was another loss, and we have moved on to other activities, like making fun of the Eagles.

Somewhere between the giddy hysteria of Newton?s hot start ? ?Cam Newton Ties Rookie Record For Most Losses in First Two Games? was the headline that best summed up our brief obsession ? and the ho hum reaction to his last few games lies the real truth about the Panthers quarterback: He is very good.

And he is getting better.

Newton is going to generate a lot of exciting while losing games this year, but the real reasons to get excited aren?t his highlight-reel passes, but his good decisions. With the spotlight off of him, Newton is taking the first steps to grow from a scramblin? video game character into an efficient all-around quarterback.

Timing is everything

Figure 1 shows the Panthers facing 2nd-and-13 while trailing 24-10 to the Bears in the second quarter. Note the formation: Newton under center, tight ends Greg Olsen (88) and Jeremy Shockey (80) to the left, two receivers to the right. Newton is not in shotgun, and this play uses no spread or option principles. The Panthers do use many option-type plays to exploit Newton?s running talents as they are not heavily dependent on them. That?s because, as this play shows, Newton is already becoming comfortable as a pocket passer.

The Bears give Newton an easy Cover-2 pre-snap read. Note that there is no defender directly covering Legedu Naanee (17), and that Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher (54) is lined up extra deep so he can run up the seam. This offensive play is designed to attack Cover-2: Steve Smith (89) runs a crossing route to keep Urlacher and the other linebackers from dropping deep into coverage. Olsen also runs a short route to ?hold the level? of the zone defense. That opens up the seam for Shockey.

The key to the success of a pass like this is timing. If Newton gives up on the play too early, he misses the split second when Shockey flashes open. If he waits too long, Urlacher and the safeties can arrive to break up the play. Newton is actually a fraction of a second late on this pass, but he delivers a perfect strike with plenty of velocity. Shockey hauls in a 15-yard reception, and the Panthers score a touchdown a few plays later.

Newton?s timing is not yet perfect on passes like these, but it is excellent for a player that spent his career in a shotgun-spread offense and barely had an offseason in which to adjust to the NFL. Plays like these allow the Panthers to keep their best weapons, including tight ends Olsen and Shockey, on the field and in their traditional roles, instead of shuttling receivers in and out of the game to set up quarterback draws and screen plays.

Of course, Steve Smith is still the Panthers? best weapon. Newton has proven that he can find Smith, even when he is not looking for him.

Checking it down
Smith caught eight passes for 181 yards against the Bears, including a wide-open 53-yarder that made the Sunday ?Gamebreak? highlights. The 53-yard catch was a simple coverage lapse, so it told us little about Newton except that he can hit a receiver who does not have a defender within 20 yards of him. Later in the first half, Newton hit Smith for a shorter pass that demonstrated his ability to hang in the pocket and find a secondary target.

Figure 2 shows the Panthers on first down just before the two-minute warning. Note again that Newton is under center and the Panthers' base personnel is in the game, with Olsen playing fullback this time. The Bears again show Cover-2, but they have a surprise up their sleeves. Just before the snap, safety Major Wright creeps closer to the line of scrimmage, and the cornerbacks drop a bit. This is not Cover-2, it is Cover-3, meaning that the deep middle and sidelines are off limits.

The change in deep coverage could spell trouble for the Panthers. This pass pattern, like the one in the last diagram, works best against two-deep coverage. When Nanee and Shockey cross behind the linebackers, the cornerback is supposed to be stuck covering Shockey, isolating Naanee against the safety. In Cover-3, there is another safety waiting right where Naanee wants to run, and Wright runs underneath the routes to make the throwing lanes uncomfortably tight. The replay shows Newton looking for Naanee at the start of this play. Throwing to him would be a big mistake.

Luckily, Newton checks down, and Smith is a heck of a player to be able to check down to. Smith knows the coverage and knows his cornerback must stay back in an extra deep zone, so he settles into a soft spot and waits. Newton spots him, and most importantly, fires the pass off immediately; any delay would make it easy for the Bears to converge on Smith. Smith makes the catch, makes a cut, and gains 29 yards. The Panthers get a field goal out of the drive.

Making things happen
The biggest compliment I can give Newton four weeks into the season is this: the Panthers' offense funnels through him.

Watch a rookie quarterback like Blaine Gabbert or Andy Dalton, and you can see the training wheels on the offense. There are lots of screens, rollout passes to the tight ends, and other plays designed to keep the reads easy and the throws short. They run the same gameplans that backup quarterbacks run, the kind that takes the game out of the quarterback?s hands.

Newton is not running that game-manager, don?t-screw-it-up gameplan.

He throws downfield. He throws past the sticks on third-and-long. He has his custom plays, particularly near the goal line, but those plays are designed to emphasize his talents, not hide his flaws. Newton has thrown some interceptions, he has fumbled, and he has delivered a lot of passes late or a little too high, but that is because he has been good enough to earn the opportunities to make those mistakes instead of handing off and punting.

Newton is on pace to throw for 5,500 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. He is more likely to throw for 4,000 yards, but the touchdown and interception projections appear dead on, with 500 rushing yards to boot. The Panthers will be absolutely thrilled with those numbers, and more importantly, with a quarterback they can trust both on the run and in the pocket.

Mike Tanier writes for NBCSports.com and Rotoworld.com and is a senior writer for Football Outsiders.


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Cam's been better than his stats

Tanier: Cam Newton is going to generate a lot of exciting while losing games this year, but the real reasons to get excited aren?t his highlight-reel passes, but his good decisions.

Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/44779431/ns/sports-nfl/

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